Resurgence of the USSR
Those who are not old enough to remember the USSR may be surprised by the flat out lies coming out of Russia as they invade a neighboring country. The Jewish president of Ukraine is called a Nazi and the sovereign nation he leads is said to have no legitimacy except as part of Mother Russia. Anyone who criticizes the actions of Comrade Putin in public is immediately picked up by the police to be sent to one of Gulags in Siberia never to be heard from again. Welcome to the resurgence of the USSR where everyone on Russia is afraid to criticize a crazy leader who controls an arsenal of nuclear weapons.
How Far Will Putin Go?
Back when a Russian invasion of Ukraine was a possibility and not a reality we wrote about Putin being upset by missile batteries in Poland. We noted that what he really wants is to turn back the clock to the Soviet era when Russia’s control included half of Germany and all of the Eastern Bloc countries. As crazy as Putin sounds when he talks about how Ukraine is really part of Russia it sounds normal Russia-speak to anyone who remembers the Cold War when American soldiers lay in the mud of the Fulda gap (the historic invasion route through Germany) with tactical atomic weapons ready to stop a Russian invasion in its tracks. The fact that Russia lets reporters from the likes of CNN report from the Russian side of the front lines and in Moscow showing the blatancy of Russia’s actions shows how much resolve Putin has and how much he believes in his ultimate success.
Will Russians Coming Home in Body Bags Make a Difference This Time?
The Russian adventure in Afghanistan (before the American experience there) ended when the Russian people got tired of their sons returning dead from a foreign war. Russia lost obscene numbers of people in World War II (The Great Patriotic War) when people were willing to give all to defend the homeland. They were much less willing to tolerate deaths of their young men fighting in a foreign country that posed no danger to the homeland. It is possible that a combination of economic pressure and Ukrainian resolve may bring down Putin’s government but if that happens, it will not happen quickly and in the meantime it will be devastating to Ukraine and risky for Eastern Europe.
How Far Will Markets Fall?
We have been saying ever since the Fed stepped in to turn things around during the Covid Crash that you cannot fight the Fed. Stimulus money from Congress and the Fed supported the stock market rally and absence of stimulus, higher interest rates, and economic sanctions on a huge source of oil and grain (Russia) as well as havoc in Ukraine which supplies much of the Middle East and Africa with grain will likely bring the market back to where it was before Covid and perhaps lower. Now is not the time to trade the market alone. Work with Top Gun Options and our trading squadron to profit no matter which way to current crisis takes the markets and how quickly it affects them. This market is nowhere near bottom and those who don’t get it will be destroyed. Meanwhile, as options traders we will trade this market into the dirt. Work with us at Top Gun Options and succeed even in a falling market.